Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
