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Growing apprehensions exist regarding the chance of armed conflict among Horn of Africa neighbors, Ethiopia and Eritrea, as aggressive discourse has intensified in the past few weeks.

What Has Ethiopia Said?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, calls for passage to the sea coast through Eritrean territory has triggered a intense rhetorical conflict.

PM Abiy Ahmed initially stated publicly in 2023 that his nation's access to the sea was an crucial concern, comments that Eritrea ignored.

Ties between the two countries have frequently been strained. Following a long-standing battle for independence, Eritrea, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) sea border, legally broke away from Ethiopian rule in the early 1990s, leaving it cut off from the sea.

In 1998, a border war broke out in which numerous people died.

Latest Statements from Ethiopian Officials

Abiy and army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have publicly asserted control of Eritrean maritime facility of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the frontier - and suggested the desire to take it by force.

In early September, the Prime Minister said Ethiopia's "blunder" of losing access to the Red Sea as a due to Eritrean independence would be "corrected tomorrow".

Ethiopia's ambassador to Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be restored "by force".

Eritrea's Reaction to the Claims

In the face of ongoing threats from Ethiopia, Eritrea's reaction has been confined to concise remarks on X from Communications Head the minister.

The minister has dismissed Ethiopian requests for sea access labeling it "dangerous" and a "toxic agenda" of "expansionism" – a strategy of retaking former lands.

Government spokespeople cautioned on mid-September that moves to legitimise "obvious provocation" would have serious consequences for Ethiopia and its neighbors and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Activities on the Border

Currently, there are little evidence of significant troop deployments in the border areas between the both nations.

However, in Ethiopia, national TV has broadcast completion events of thousands of cadets at multiple army bases.

The director of staff section of the defense force, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, recently said in an interview that the military was in a "reliable position" as "tens of thousands of young people" were entering service, which he said was "a signal to our adversaries".

Previous Origins of the Tension

For more than half a century from the late 19th century, Eritrea was governed by Italian rulers.

After Italy's defeat, it was then controlled by the UK forces before evolving into a associated territory of Ethiopia.

But in 1962 the ruler cancelled this system and the region became completely integrated into Ethiopia.

A extended civil war ensued, concluding with military reversal in 1991. Independence was then confirmed by Eritreans in a vote in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the authorities in Addis Ababa and Asmara, but they clashed over the specific demarcation of their common border, resulting in war in 1998.

Even though this finished in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the both countries continued at in dispute.

This ended in 2018, when Abiy made approaches to Eritrea's leader the president. The two endorsed a declaration that the conflict was concluded – a decision that earned Abiy the international recognition.

The both administrations were then allies in the country's recent armed struggle in Tigray.

But ties have subsequently deteriorated again.